tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post3128541097071796962..comments2023-08-01T04:17:03.628-04:00Comments on Liberal Arts and Minds: Keeping Promises and a New PollKarenhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comBlogger19125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-44549483969542045692008-08-16T00:15:00.000-04:002008-08-16T00:15:00.000-04:00"Why is it that right wing bloggers think I (and m..."Why is it that right wing bloggers think I (and my colleagues at Ipsos Reid) are Liberal stooges, and the blogs on the left think we're apologists for Harper and the Tories? If we're upsetting both sides, we must be pretty close to the truth."<BR/><BR/>Darrell, you seem far more reasonable than you colleague, who just generally threatens any questioning like a rabid dog, baiting and posturing. <BR/><BR/>I'm quite comfortable in the assumption that your outfit tends to overstate the Conservatives support relative to others, others that frankly have a better track record. From what I see in the discourse online, Conservative supports constantly cite your findings, I've never once heard any Tory accuse you of being a "Liberal stooge". That angle is just non-existent frankly, aside from some stray post I'm sure you could find to cobble together a quantatively weak argument. Sorry, but I see no evidence to support the, "we're getting it from both sides, must be doing something right" comfort blanket of objectivity. The fact of the matter, Don Martin, who works for your client, stated on CBC two months ago that Ipsos tends to show the Conservatives consistently higher than other outfits, didn't seem like he was sold either. There is no controversy here, the Conservatives like your findings, the Liberals hate them. To be truthfully, I generally shave off a couple points mentally everytime I read a poll, it's my opinion that your methodology produces slightly off results. That's my perspective, I read every poll in detail (the fact you don't post your pdf's like other pollsters is another weakness), I just don't take the numbers as absolute.<BR/><BR/>Two cents, prove me wrong.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-50619247531235022582008-08-16T00:14:00.000-04:002008-08-16T00:14:00.000-04:00This comment has been removed by the author.Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-29122232649134824152008-08-15T21:41:00.000-04:002008-08-15T21:41:00.000-04:00Thank you for your contribution Darrell, but that ...Thank you for your contribution Darrell, but that is not all I need to know.<BR/><BR/>I'm happy to hear from you, usually it's John and I'm sorry, when he host's a show on CFRB it's kind of tough not to pick up the bias.<BR/><BR/>In fairness, Ann Kathawala brings balance, but Warren?, Rudyard?, they are hardly contemporary examples of the parties they are meant to represent. Powers is though. Go figure. <BR/><BR/>That said, I want to respect what you have imparted.<BR/><BR/>I thought Dion was doing better in Quebec, close to the Bloc and the Conservatives were trailing. Is that not the case?<BR/><BR/>Dion's timing on the Green Shift? I disagree. What is dishonest about polls on this subject and the reporting is that no one says that the Conservative plan will also raise all of those costs, but provide no relief. <BR/><BR/>Those are not my words. That is what their plan says. No one put's that to the people though. Why isn't that ever mentioned in a poll? It's dishonest imo. To me, you are polling using only one side of the argument and it happens to be aligned with a Conservative talking point.<BR/><BR/>To your last point, yes, I think we are all aware that a Conservative majority is impossible.<BR/><BR/>Finally, for the record, the excuse that <I>both sides are angry at us must mean we're doing our job</I> is a flimsy cane to rely on while walking.<BR/><BR/>Only lazy media wear that as a badge. We expect more from both of you.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-65976713619449747802008-08-15T21:03:00.000-04:002008-08-15T21:03:00.000-04:00For the record, we call it as we see it. Why is i...For the record, we call it as we see it. Why is it that right wing bloggers think I (and my colleagues at Ipsos Reid) are Liberal stooges, and the blogs on the left think we're apologists for Harper and the Tories? If we're upsetting both sides, we must be pretty close to the truth.<BR/><BR/>On polling, here's all you need to know:<BR/><BR/>- The #s haven't moved much since Jan '06;<BR/>- People respect Harper, think he's doing a good job, but don't like him;<BR/>- At best, they're confused by Dion. <BR/>- The Tories can't get traction in either Quebec or Ontario. And, the votes they have across the country are inefficient in terms of seats;<BR/>- The Grits are close behind, but have a much more efficient vote;<BR/>- Dion is well behind in Quebec, where he was supposed to make a difference.<BR/><BR/>On the Green Shift, Dion's timing couldn't have been worse. The environment is dropping as a priority, and a new tax (which is how it looks to the public) is a "bad" idea in a tough economy.<BR/><BR/>If an election is held in the fall, Harper has the advantage. But, unless there is a complete collapse of the Grit vote (say below 28%), a majority is almost impossible.<BR/><BR/>There it is. That's all you need to know.<BR/><BR/>Darrell BrickerAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-40820057308532230182008-07-12T12:13:00.000-04:002008-07-12T12:13:00.000-04:00Yes, it would not be the first time Ipsos-Reid has...Yes, it would not be the first time Ipsos-Reid has shown the two parties neck-and-neck only to come back in a week or two showing the Conservatives jumping out to a big lead.<BR/><BR/>I fully expect the Conservatives to pull ahead this summer because that is what happens to incumbents when the House is not sitting.<BR/><BR/>My guess, by the end of the summer the Liberals will still be around 31% plus-or-minus two points and the Conservtives will be around 35%plus-or-minus two.<BR/><BR/>The really interesting part of this is when the move actually takes place. And if it does not take place then things will really be interesting.<BR/><BR/>By the end of the Summer the Liberals will be well within striking distance for the election that everybody says will take place this Fall.<BR/><BR/>Although, it would not surprise me to see Ipsos and Strategic Council come out with polls in late August showing a double digit lead for the Conservatives because that is what they have done every other time the Liberals have either tied or gone ahead of the Conservatives.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-71003732998546349162008-07-12T08:53:00.000-04:002008-07-12T08:53:00.000-04:00knb...since this is an ipsos poll I would not be a...knb...since this is an ipsos poll I would not be at all surprised if a new poll next week showed the cons leading by 8 or 10 points....and if the ipsos poll has the liberals almost even with the cons...U can believe they are up to something....we are either way ahead or something big is coming up next week to put the cons way ahead....I don't think it will be the fact that they have removed the inspectors CFIA to test for MADCOW disease to cut government expenses in agriculture.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-1458631219896269842008-07-11T23:55:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:55:00.000-04:00How come the blogging tories and lib logs both cla...How come the blogging tories and lib logs both claim media bias?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-38854084919454935682008-07-11T23:35:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:35:00.000-04:00Right, you're so wrong on this. Harper hasn't mov...Right, you're so wrong on this. <BR/><BR/>Harper hasn't moved his numbers in over 2 years...Canadians do not trust him and are losing faith on crucial issues like climate change.<BR/><BR/>The issues he's focussed on, crime, terrorism, they register in the single digit's in Canadians minds.<BR/><BR/>The Lib's had 1 year of determining a leader and another of putting the party back together.<BR/><BR/>Are they campaigning now? Yes, but your guy has had a 2 year head start and has nothing to show for it.<BR/><BR/>As for your final comment, you know full well that I'd speak to any poll that came out, but you are dreaming if you think the next poll is going to show Harper with an 8 point lead.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-80939524227397586962008-07-11T23:29:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:29:00.000-04:00anon, I'm sure all MP's will be out selling it. W...anon, I'm sure all MP's will be out selling it. Whether the media covers it or not is a different matter.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-7060534571476566102008-07-11T23:07:00.000-04:002008-07-11T23:07:00.000-04:00Polls in the middle of the summer are just as inte...Polls in the middle of the summer are just as interesting as watching<BR/>paint dry.<BR/><BR/>I mean it really shows how desperate some in the liberal blogger's sphere are to try to find anything positive from this poll. <BR/><BR/>Even if I take this poll at face value,it's nothing for the Liberals to write home about. <BR/><BR/>I'm only seeing Mr.Dion who really is campaigning here. Not the Conservatives. Sure they do respond here and there,but the Liberal's who are doing the campaign style that you would normally see in an election. The only one who is doing this is Mr.Dion. <BR/><BR/>You should then ask yourselves why aren't the liberals leading the Conservatives by a wide margin hummm? <BR/><BR/>I'm just wondering here the next time we see a poll that puts the Conservatives a head by 6,7,8,points if it will be posted. Let me take a wild guess nooot!;)Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-22060164622734692502008-07-11T22:57:00.000-04:002008-07-11T22:57:00.000-04:00I hope that we see Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff g...I hope that we see Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff going out this summer and selling the Green Shift as well. I haven't seen any media reports that they've done so which doesn't mean they haven't. Dion should of course be the lead but he shouldn't be alone on this. That's asking too much of one person.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-49374910138088975422008-07-11T22:39:00.000-04:002008-07-11T22:39:00.000-04:00Thanks Frankly Canadian an welcome to the world of...Thanks Frankly Canadian an welcome to the world of blogging.<BR/><BR/>I expect you'll be setting the record straight as well.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-91251978180691136162008-07-11T22:01:00.000-04:002008-07-11T22:01:00.000-04:00I'm glad we have honest people like yourself to di...I'm glad we have honest people like yourself to disclaim the constant disreputable reporting and polling that goes on with these media companies. Keep up the good work, I just wish more Canadians could see theses blogs and learn the truth about our so called news reporters and unbiased polling.Frankly Canadianhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09939737123658813199noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-48766955804297331642008-07-11T21:05:00.000-04:002008-07-11T21:05:00.000-04:00Steve, I hope they heard you.Bricker made the comm...Steve, I hope they heard you.<BR/><BR/>Bricker made the comment on CFRB. I sometimes listen to John Moore, who is a Liberal, though way right of me.<BR/><BR/>Bricker only made the news broadcast, but who is the other guy, John Wright? He's often on there. Big time partisan.<BR/><BR/>Anyway, Moore had the internals and whipped through them so I missed a lot, but they sounded promising. <BR/><BR/><I>Why does this always seem to happen when the Libs move?</I><BR/><BR/>It's (cough) an accident.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-9232163514918216522008-07-11T20:58:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:58:00.000-04:00Indeed ottlib. Toew's would be out in full force, ...Indeed ottlib. Toew's would be out in full force, but at least we'd have her rational voice responding.<BR/><BR/>Re' the Green Shift, I think it would be tough to have wished for greater results.Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-42029353039002265462008-07-11T20:56:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:56:00.000-04:00MoS- Wouldn't that be brilliant? Given here accom...MoS- Wouldn't that be brilliant? Given here accomplishments, it's difficult for me to think she'd want to run, but on the other hand, it may be a fitting place to land.<BR/><BR/>Oh, the outrage we'd hear from the right though!Karenhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04291881352139075405noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-89809235400475770002008-07-11T20:47:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:47:00.000-04:00"With the addition of these two women, we're now a..."With the addition of these two women, we're now at 38%."<BR/><BR/>I didn't know we were that high. Wow.<BR/><BR/>On that RT idea, I have heard the event yesterday was fully videotaped, and I spoke with the campaign to suggest they YouTube it. We'll see.<BR/><BR/>BTW, which station had Bricker on? And, I noticed in my link, the horserace numbers were glanced over, as though irrelevant. Why does this always seem to happen when the Libs move?Steve Vhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/04871113039374739208noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-64690273625781131292008-07-11T20:36:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:36:00.000-04:00We cannot do that MoS, she is a disgrace don't you...We cannot do that MoS, she is a disgrace don't you know.<BR/><BR/>An Ipsos-Reid poll saying the Liberals and Conservatives are tied. Hmmmm, that is interesting.<BR/><BR/>Also a majority agree with Mr. Dion's approach. Combine that with the poll last week indicating that one-third of respondents knew what the Green Shift Plan was, without prompting, three weeks after its release and I would say the Liberals selling job is progressing nicely.ottlibhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/12695135535019042279noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-30594727.post-74026829706830031372008-07-11T20:30:00.000-04:002008-07-11T20:30:00.000-04:00Now if only we could bring Ms. Arbour into the lin...Now if only we could bring Ms. Arbour into the lineup.The Mound of Soundhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/09023839743772372922noreply@blogger.com