Friday, December 21, 2007

Going Down? Those darn Polls

Two polls do not a trend make, but this is another sign that Harper just does not connect.

The latest Ipsos-Reid poll puts the national numbers in a tie again. Con's at 35% and the Lib's at 33%. Ipsos as we know always seems to push the con numbers, especially when paired with Can-West. Bottom line though, it's a tie.

Regionally however, Harper has a big problem. In Ontario, the Lib's are 10 points ahead at 43% and the con's at 33%. Quebec? The province that they have been having an affair with? Well, the Con's are in 3rd place. Lib's at 27%, the Bloc at 31% and the Con's at 23%. That is an interesting dynamic. I need to see more intricate numbers to assess, but at the very least, the false narrative of Chantal Hebert, Daniel LeBlanc (who I like actually) and the infamous LaPierre are clearly not reflective of reality.

So, yet another poll. Does it predict the future? Of course not, but consider that this is a time that people are busy with other things. That the populace is less enamored with Harper right now, may be telling. We shall see.

This comes of course at the same time that Harper called some by-elections. He of course waited 6 months to do this, knowing full well that at least 3 of the 4 were Liberal strongholds. Worse than that though, he's set them for March 17th? Most by-elections run a 36 day campaign. Not this time. Chicken Harper would rather pass a budget first and be in a legislation pushing mode. Though that is odd too given that he has said no more tax cuts and no more spending. He has something up his sleeve and I think it's an attack on the Environment front...the scare thing. If I'm right, it's a terrible tactic. One that will bite him, imho.

We shall see. My gut tells me that Martha Hall-Finley and Bob Rae will be engaged in a federal election before the by-elections come, but a crystal ball is not something that I own.

7 comments:

Strom A. Tune said...

Well KNB,
I can see your artistic. You have a very artful blog.

I agree that Ipsos Reid pings the Con numbers upward. I figure about 7%. Also they hide the data on undecided.

I figure that Ipsos is in cahoots with the back office of the Cons. They need to inflate their numbs to keep the core Constits from the wailing and gnashing their teeth in fear of another long slog in the wilderness.

Quebecers have never fancied voting for a party wearing the smell of a loser. So Harper's down to loose change from there.

Maritimers have a long memory. Bye bye Harper's American pie down there.

God Bless Ontario.

Alberta, get back to your kennel for Irrelevant Mad Voters.

Anonymous said...

Is this the same person who in the past said that you don't actually pay attention to polls? This during the time when people were paying attention and parliament was debating.

Now that parliament is off and people have their minds on what they are going to eat and buy for Christmas and New Years suddenly you pay attention to them. They couldn't of course pick the worst time for political polls. Its like having polls in the middle of July when people are thinking about vacation and going to the beach.

Since your talking about it here is a comparison from 2006 election and this latest poll.
Con's 36.27% Lib's 30.23% in 2006 election National.
This poll:Con's 35% Lib's 33%

In the province of Ont.2006
Con's 35.1% and Lib.39.9%
This poll:Lib's 43% and Con's 33%

In the province of Que.2006
Con's 24.6% and Lib's 20.8%
This poll:Lib's 27% and Con's 23%

My point here is not much of a difference.Political polls this close to Christmas and New Year's has just has much worth to it has the polls in middle of July.

We'll talk when parliament comes back and a new budget has been brought down then we will see.Until then Mary Christmas and a happy New Year to all!

Here is where I saw the 2006 info.

knb said...

strom a. tune, you certainly have a way of painting with words.

Well done!

knb said...

Anon, I clearly said that 2polls does not constitute a trend, but you have to admit that things should be better for the Con's.

They've done everything in their power to win over Quebec and the Lib's have jumped, nay, leap frogged them.

If you really think the Ontario numbers are nothing to worry about, I suggest you switch whatever it is that you are smoking.

I'm with you on this. I will not put all of my faith in these numbers. I stand by what I have always said, polls are just polls. I do not rely on them, but they are interesting to watch.

That you see such little difference in these numbers compared to the last election is interesting. In Ontario the spread has gone from 5 to 10 points. We'll have to see if that sticks.

Your point that people have their minds on other things is precisely the point. If you're busy, you tend not to pay attention to politics. Obviously Harper made such a negative impression recently that people noticed even in the midst of their annual rituals.

Fair enough, we'll see what happens when Parliament returns. Don't expect much in the Budget though, that is unless Harper is lying again. He did say no big spending and no big tax cuts.

What's he going to give us?

Anonymous said...

To answer your question about Ont. No I'm not worried for the simple reason,because there is no campaign and people will just say anything to pollster during the Holiday season,because their minds are not in it.Oh yea I don't smoke:)

About Harper lying you say well he is not about to tell us what he will do with the Budget.Its called strategy. He knows that the opposition is listening.Remember the Liberals were doing the same saying that they didn't have $$$ then they would announce big $$.We need to read between the lines example we are ahead of $200 million compare to last year at this time in surplus.Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is also given hints about helping the manufacturing sector. This will help Ont.and Quebec greatly.

Just remember the mini budget that we had this fall it wasn't until the last minute we found out it was going to be a mini budget.
I may have made some typo's,but its late and I'm tired:-)

Have a goodnight a Mary Christmas and a happy New Year!

CuriosityCat said...

Harper is the most poll-happy PM we have had for a long time.

Want to guess why he set the 4 byelections for as far out as he could - March 17?

Because his internal polling shows the Tories are in trouble, and he is afraid.

That March 17 date signals one thing very clearly: despite all is bluff and bravado, Harper is running scared of an election.

Watch him twist and turn next year to avoid giving the opposition anything which will unite them and lead to an election.

Watch him fashion a budget which offers Quebec so much, the Bloc is prised loose and he stays in power.

The year 2008 is the year of turnaround: Harper's turn to run for the hills to avoid an election...

Strom A. Tune said...

Anonymous said "Finance Minister Jim Flaherty is also given hints about helping the manufacturing sector. This will help Ont.and Quebec greatly."

Flaherty will fiddle and diddle the Tax Act with more accelerated tax write-offs.

Whoopee! The useless chasing after the irrelevant. If you're bleeding working capital because of the high CAD $ and low exports, how will you afford to buy the assets that qualify for the accelerated tax write-offs?

Perhaps you'll get lucky and have a speeding ambulance run a red, and level you off the intersection.