Two polls do not a trend make, but this is another sign that Harper just does not connect.
The latest Ipsos-Reid poll puts the national numbers in a tie again. Con's at 35% and the Lib's at 33%. Ipsos as we know always seems to push the con numbers, especially when paired with Can-West. Bottom line though, it's a tie.
Regionally however, Harper has a big problem. In Ontario, the Lib's are 10 points ahead at 43% and the con's at 33%. Quebec? The province that they have been having an affair with? Well, the Con's are in 3rd place. Lib's at 27%, the Bloc at 31% and the Con's at 23%. That is an interesting dynamic. I need to see more intricate numbers to assess, but at the very least, the false narrative of Chantal Hebert, Daniel LeBlanc (who I like actually) and the infamous LaPierre are clearly not reflective of reality.
So, yet another poll. Does it predict the future? Of course not, but consider that this is a time that people are busy with other things. That the populace is less enamored with Harper right now, may be telling. We shall see.
This comes of course at the same time that Harper called some by-elections. He of course waited 6 months to do this, knowing full well that at least 3 of the 4 were Liberal strongholds. Worse than that though, he's set them for March 17th? Most by-elections run a 36 day campaign. Not this time. Chicken Harper would rather pass a budget first and be in a legislation pushing mode. Though that is odd too given that he has said no more tax cuts and no more spending. He has something up his sleeve and I think it's an attack on the Environment front...the scare thing. If I'm right, it's a terrible tactic. One that will bite him, imho.
We shall see. My gut tells me that Martha Hall-Finley and Bob Rae will be engaged in a federal election before the by-elections come, but a crystal ball is not something that I own.