Monday, June 09, 2008

A Moment in Time

Like all polls, this one reflects only this particular moment in time, but given the doom and gloom lately, I thought I'd put it out there as a bit of good news.

Yes, I know it may be fleeting, but it is an interesting snapshot that suggests the Con's have far less room for growth than the Lib's do.

The Canadian Press Harris-Decima survey compared attitudes toward the Tories and Liberals in a head-to-head, two-party format. The telephone poll of just over 1,000 Canadians found that 44 per cent of respondents would prefer a Liberal government after the next election, compared to 37 per cent who preferred the Conservatives.

Bruce Anderson of Harris-Decima says the survey indicates the Tories are ahead of the Liberals on leadership, but trail the Grits on questions of front-bench strength, values, and ideas for the future.

NDP supporters said they'd prefer a Liberal government by a three-to-one margin compared to the Tory alternative, and Green supporters favoured the Liberals by more than two to one.

Anderson argues that in a sharply polarized election campaign, the numbers could work in the Liberals' favour.

Going back to something I said in a previous post, an election about ideas could certainly keep us ahead and if the current ad strategy is any indication, it's guaranteed to be polarized.

This is a bit weird though;

Only Bloc Quebecois supporters were more favourable to a Conservative outcome, by a 43-35 margin.

More information revealed.

The poll also suggests that the Lib's will not pay a huge price for not felling the government.

- 8% want an election now
- 27% want it in the Fall
- 52% later than the Fall

Yes, leadership is still an issue, but I go back to what I've said for some time. Dion has be defined by the Con's, but he will define himself as he gains more press and especially during an election. The leadership issue is yet improved as well.

Harper - 35%
Dion - 26%

When you remove the other leaders, the gap narrows. Add to that no formed opinion, it narrows even more.

In the end, there were many of us that wanted to bring the Con's down now. I'm one of them. Was I wrong? The election will tell me that, but at this point I'm not going to pout.

My intent now is to watch and listen to what goes on during the summer.

Something tells me that substance will win over attack.

9 comments:

RuralSandi said...

I suspect the current vicious ILLEGAL (apparently) attacks on Dion means that the Tory inside polls must be telling them something they don't like.

Perhaps Dion better take opportunity when it knocks....

Sir Francis said...

Only Bloc Quebecois supporters were more favourable to a Conservative outcome, by a 43-35 margin.

Why should that be "weird"? The BQ and CPC have always been ideological soulmates: they both hate Canada, each in their own way. Obviously, hard-core separatists prefer the BQ, but the CPC is the next best thing.

penlan said...

"Something tells me that substance will win over attack. "

I'm leaning this way too now knb.

Reading James Curran & the fact that he is furious with Libs over the passing of the new Immigration
law, understandably as it angers us all but sad that he has gone to such an extreme, has me thinking on a different tack than him though. The Libs can use this in an election campaign to assure voters that they will change this.

All immigrants are angry over this & they won't be as angry with the Libs as they will be with the CON's for changing the rules &, basically, forcing this to go through by attaching it to the Bill. But the Libs HAVE to make this one of their priorities in the next election. Get it out there over & over & over. And if elected make sure they DO it!

The CON's have gone out of their way, since being elected, to try & pander to the different ethnic groups here, quietly mind you via Jason Kenney, but they have just undone any headway they may have made. Weird to work against themselves & their plan btw.

And it's time for the Libs to get their carbon tax plan out soon, like NOW, & through the summer so it is very clear. People will be home more this summer, I think, rather than travelling away on holidays due to the high cost of gas. Many will change their plans. So they will be at home to actually listen to the "news", read newspapers, etc.

Have to laugh over the CON ad for the gas pumps & it being, now, denied by the ad company that puts the ads on the pumps. Makes sense to me. It would drive patrons away to use other gas stations who are not running the ads,(those who do not support the CON's), & the gas stations, & their big oil owners, that would play these ads will LOSE customers & a whole lot of money.

Find this poll interesting at this point in time. But it will change again as always. And the Libs do have more room to grow support than do the nasty, little Cons. Steve & goons have made so many mistakes & done such a lot of harm to this country that the majority are unaware of right now but that can change through the summer & definitely during an election when the Libs make us all aware of what has been done to undermine & decimate this beautiful country of ours.

knb said...

Sandi, I don't know what their internals say, but they can't be all good.

It's going to be an interesting summer.

knb said...

sir francis...you have a point there.

Blue Liberal said...

The Decima-Harris poll is interesting but it doesn't much matter now anyways, does it? Our chance for an election came and went on Monday when Dion disregarded his caucus' instincts and pull the plug on the government. And we now won't have one until January 2009 at the earliest. Harper will have been in power for 3 years by then. I'm tuning out of politics for at least 6 months. I'm shaking my head because the Conservatives were just starting to look vulnerable.

knb said...

penlan, indeed Kenney has been out there pandering, just as Baird has, but it's worse than pandering, it's lying.

I'm certain they thought the immigration bill was a winner because they were selling it as something that would reduce wait times. Lie. A few groups bought into the lie, (I say that based on some of the committee hearings I saw), but very few.

The optics of the vote do us no favours and I really do understand the frustration out there, but I believe when the election comes around people will be talking about policy.

It's easy to get caught up in the moment in politics, but the landscape can shift on a dime.

We may have missed an opportunity last night, but I'm not going to dwell there. I don't see the point in doing that.

I'd rather focus on what we have and move forward.

knb said...

blue liberal, fair enough, but I disagree.

I think the poll still matters because it was about potential. That hasn't changed.

The Con's were starting to look vulnerable and I don't that is going to change either.

The Lib's aren't the only ones who have to put some policy out there, the Con's have yet to give us any vision either and my bet is that they have very little.

Good grief, they are still working from their original 5 priorities.

Running around attacking all summer is not going to repair the damage the Con's have done to themselves.

Steve V said...

"I think the poll still matters because it was about potential. That hasn't changed."

I think the poll matters, because it tells us that Harper's view of Canada isn't representative of the majority opinion. It's really not a surprise, everyone knows that Canada is a centrist country, with a lean to the left, that's the mainstream, it ain't Bush country. The only reason Harper ever attains power, is if the other parties divide the vote. People loved to talk about the divided right, but even that always occured within a fractured center-left (did they forget that the NDP is a permanent fixture, as opposed to the temporary Reform-Con split). This poll just confirms what everyone, outside of Con partisans, having been saying from the beginning- there is a ceiling, no matter what they do they can't break it.