Guess Who's Afraid of Elizabeth May?

Well this certainly has been an interesting day for the leader of the Green Party.

First she recruits Blair Wilson to join the party so she now has an MP in the House, then she announces that this means she should be included in the televised debates.

I happen to agree that she should be included, as obviously that would stregthen the case to be made on pricing carbon and moving quickly to do so.

That would leave Mr. Layton in a bit of a tough spot, because May is on record as saying she thinks that the NDP were wrong to denounce a carbon tax and the Liberal's Green Shift. He'd have a pretty difficult time defending his plan as being the right one if the leader of the Green Party, not just Dion, is explaining how it won't take effect quickly enough.

But of course the other loser if May is included would be Mr. Harper. It's no wonder then that his communications director Kory Tenycke announced today that the Conservatives do not believe that she should be included. I guess that's not a surprise really, but what was is the reason he gave.

He said that she should not be included because there should only be one Liberal involved in the debate. Huh? He supported this bizarre comment by stating that May is on record as supporting Dion as PM, which is really only half true. On each occasion I've seen her asked, 'who would you like to see as PM', she always says herself first. Until then, she has said she'd rather see Dion than Harper. Apparently that makes her a party member.

Not only is this a ridiculous claim to make, it's bizarre strategy to work to deny her entry. Harper already is being touted as having an empty plan for the environment and working to keep May out will certainly reinforce that image.

I know he wants the election to be all about his leadership, but guess what? He doesn't get to limit the issues Canadians want to discuss.

Strong leader? Nah, just a coward that can't face a real debate about real issues.

Update - May interview on CTV. (h/t to commenter Chrystal Ocean.)

Strategy, Tactics and Timing

So the game and speculation continues. Harper meets with Gilles Duceppe to basically say nothing. His game? Present the facade that he's making an effort to work with the opposition leaders. He's not though, or not at least according to Duceppe.

Tomorrow, he'll play the same game with Layton and he won't even bother to meet with Dion.

Here's the thing though. If you're going to have your officials go to the press even before your pretend meeting with Layton and they speculate that the election will be on the 14th of October, what the heck is the point of trying to present an alternate reality? He really does think Canadians are stupid doesn't he?

Officials in the Prime Minister's office say that Stephen Harper will likely call an election next week and send voters to the polls on Oct. 14.

These officials told The Canadian Press no decision has yet been made, but they indicated he will go to the Governor-General sometime between Sept. 2 and 7th.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe met with Harper Friday morning and said Harper "absolutely wants to call an election."

As an aside, Aaron Wherry at MacLeans seems to be hearing that October 14th would not be ideal. That does seem like odd timing and certainly not a group that Harper would want to tick off.

There's another timing issue though that seems to be working against Harper and co. It's that old nuisance of, events conspiring against you.

Sadly, the Listeria outbreak is not calming and indeed, there has been another related death. It's awful when such things play into the political narrative, but it's a fact that they do.

Since the Liberals jumped on the leaked memo from the CFIA in July, they should be expected to continue to hit the government on this point. What is gaining steam though is 3rd party support and more information. I'm sure Harper didn't plan on going into an election with all of that building in the news.

Nor am I sure that he expected the backlash in Quebec to his Arts cuts. The rest of us did of course, but it's a sign to me that he and his 'people' are really out of touch of where Canadians are. I mean really, if Chantal Hebert is taking this tone, what more do you need to know?

It's difficult to keep up with the number of groups he's angered and if the Con's do not think that any of that will play out during an election, they are dreaming.

Is it possible that he allowed himself to believe that the country was shifting to the right since he took office? Listening to a bit of conservative talk radio this afternoon, his followers certainly are taking that line. In fact, one host went as far as to say that McCain's choice of running mate ensures a Conservative sweep across the US and Canada this Fall.

What utter nonsense. No one knows yet how our election will turn out, but what we progressives have on our side is the mountain of evidence that Conservative ideology is, (when it is accurately laid out), not being embraced in large numbers. When the results of said ideology come home to roost, they are certainly more likely to be rejected than embraced and it looks like that just might be happening at the moment.

In addition to what I've already mentioned, the Con's also have the small problem of the economy to contend with.

And finally, it appears that Harper is going to try to paint Dion with political spectrum brush, I suppose in retaliation for Dion pointing out just how right on the spectrum Harper really is.

This in my opinion, (if Harper keeps it up), will be damaging to him. He's spent an awful lot of capital, (both political and real), in trying to present a moderate stance. As soon as he starts using the rhetoric we see and hear south of the border by the Republicans, Canadians shy away. Most Canadians see themselves as progressive and to suggest that that is a bad thing, as the Con's are beginning to do, will reap them few rewards. In fact, it may have NDP, Green and young supporters looking to and seeing the merits of Dion.

Perhaps he's trying to pull the far right back into the fold if they thought Harper had been too centrist, but they were never going to vote Liberal anyway. What's the point? Is that all he feels he can draw on and does he have internal numbers that tell him that will push him through?

I have the sense that the master tactician and supposed superior strategist's veneer is starting to peel away.

I say, keep it up.

Update - A factual analysis that I think supports my supposition.

I Decide Which Laws I Follow

Well, it's clear that Harper will respect neither the letter nor the spirit of the fixed election date law, but what about election spending laws?

He was asked the question in Inuvik and in his usual non-answer fashion said:

He says the Conservatives will "operate within the law as we understand it in consultation with Elections Canada."

Perfect. The In and Out scheme skirted the law based on their creative understanding of it, (which really means they tried to get around it) so what is to prevent them from doing that again?

He then went on to distort the truth further by saying:

Speaking during an Arctic tour as a federal vote looms, Harper said elections agency officials have "changed some of their positions" since the last federal campaign in 2006.

And that, says Harper, is the Tories' problem with Elections Canada.

No, it's not really. There have been some changes made to the law based on the Accountability Act, but not the ones that they contravened in 2006. No, exceeding spending limits by transferring national expenses to riding associations wasn't allowed in 2006 either, but he'd like you to think otherwise.

So we go into an election by the PM first breaking his own law, lying about a crisis in parliament that only developed in the past 2 weeks when the House wasn't sitting and the possibility that the Conservatives will once again overspend on advertising during the election.

Additionally, they have made clear that they will begin advertising immediately, which is allowed of course, but these ad's have been ready for a while, which tells us that they have been chomping at the bit to go to an election. Dion wasn't playing their game though.

The ad? Is it an attack ad? Apparently not, unless of course you consider an attack on your intelligence an attack ad.

Rather than attacking Liberal Leader Stephan Dion, the commercial features Canadians describing what they like about Prime Minister Stephen Harper. It seems designed to portray a kinder, gentler side of the prime minister.

Kinder, gentler? After a summer of running around attacking Dion on every front, lying to Canadians about the Green Shift and their own plan, we're supposed suddenly swallow a new phony image of the man?

"He's doing a good job," another says. "He's the steady hand we need when the world's economy is so uncertain."

This one is beyond ridiculous. I do not for the life of me understand how they get away with perpetuating this lie. They have brought this country to the brink of deficit and Flaherty has a track record of being a terrible Finance Minister. The Con's have outspent the Lib's, done nothing to assist the manufacturing sector and attacked the provinces.

"I like the idea that he's a family man with young children," a woman says.

What? Being a father with young children qualifies you to run the country how exactly?

So there you go. Pre-writ ads that ask you to believe that the Stephen Harper you know, is not the one running for PM. It's another Stephen Harper created on celluloid that you'll be voting for.

In the meantime, we have our Health Minister making jokes about food safety in Denver at a time when a family in Madoc is preparing to bury their mother who died of Listeriosis.

The Canadian government sponsored a swish lunch reception at its consul-general's Denver residence.

The food included bite-sized bits of beef, shrimp, tortellini and potatoes gratin. Health Minister Tony Clement, whose absence from Canada during the tainted meat crisis has not gone unnoticed, was there and introduced himself:

"I'm Health Minister Tony Clement, and I have to say I approved this food."

That's an accurate depiction of our kinder, gentler, compassionate Conservative government.


h/t- Red Tory on the Clement story

Flanagan's Theory

I wondered where Tom Flanagan had disappeared to. He seemed to be getting a fair bit of press there for a while by telling us what Harper's real plans are.

For some months though, he seems to have been silent, but now that an election is in the offing, we may be seeing and hearing more from him.

Today he's speculating on the reason for Harper calling an election. Well, not the reason exactly, but why it makes sense.

Tom Flanagan, a political scientist at the University of Calgary, believes Harper would be satisfied to return with a strengthened minority - a result that would throw the Liberals into chaos, thereby advancing the prime minister's longterm strategy of destroying Canada's so-called natural governing party.

"I don't think Harper has to be thinking about a majority at all," Flanagan said in an interview.

"Strategically, this is sort of a prolonged war of attrition."

As Flanagan sees it, the first major battle in this incremental war occurred in 2004, when Harper managed to reduce Paul Martin's Liberals to a minority. In the second clash in 2006, Harper won his own Conservative minority.

The third skirmish, which Harper appears set to launch next week, likely won't kill what Flanagan jokingly refers to as "the evil empire." But, if the Tories can win a few more seats at the Liberals' expense - an outcome Flanagan considers realistic given Harper's superior campaign skills and the Tories' fatter war chest - he predicted that would be enough to throw the Grits into a longterm tailspin that could eventually lead to their demise.

He's a charmer isn't he? That is something that I find is pretty consistent with many Harper Conservatives. They are most joyous when they are deriding something or especially someone. Anyway, there you have it according to Flanagan. Harper's quest for power is based solely on his desire to destroy the Liberal party. Wouldn't that make a lovely campaign slogan?

For those of us who follow this stuff, Flanagan's words come as no surprise but it is galling to read that the Leader of this country is more interested in satisfying his hatred for all things l/Liberal than he is in actually developing this country and moving it forward. That is the face of the kind of politics we are being led by. Disgusting.

Rather than shutting this character down though, I hope he starts making more appearances because he talks about Harper's agenda in a way that explains the stealth by which Harper is taking the country apart and hones in on how he is duping Canadians into thinking one thing so he can go about doing the opposite.

What a contrast to Dion. Say what you will about the Liberal leader, he is not in politics to destroy, but rather to build. He will make that quite clear in my view.

It seems to me that this election is going to come down to the campaigns that are run. Flanagan seems pretty confident that Harper is going to do a much better job of this than the Lib's. In addition to his belief that Harper is a better campaigner, he mentions that the Con's have a bigger war chest. While that is true, I do not understand what difference that makes during an election. Everyone has a level playing field right? At least they are supposed to. We still have that little problem of the Con's over spending during the last election and I guess there is no guarantee that they won't do that again. I'm sure Mr. Flanagan delights in that bit genius strategy.

Well, there is no question that the Con's have the Rove method of running campaigns perfected, but that is not a guarantee of anything. In my opinion, that type of campaigning obviously can work, but it's really dependent on the mood of the country. Is the mood right at the moment to listen to relentless attacks, fear mongering and lies? I think the Con's are forgetting, or perhaps ignoring, that Karl Rove has severely damaged if not destroyed much of the Republican party. McCain is fighting like hell to remove himself from Bush and what Rove created. Something tells me that Giorno and other Harper insiders are on the wrong side of that wave, especially in Canada.

I think one of the biggest advantages that the Liberals have is how the Con's seem to underestimate them. Indeed, the Liberal party has gone through a rough period, but it seems to me that struggle would only make the team stronger. And it's important to remember that the current configuration of the Liberal party is not what it was. Media don't speak to the changes we've seen, but the party has a new face and a strong sense of renewal. The prospect of putting the strong Liberal team up against the Conservative benches certainly doesn't fill me with dread. In fact it brings an image of the adults speaking to the kids.

It's been said that Harper wants to make this election about leadership, I presume because he's convinced that his attack ad's have done their job. Well, we'll see. Dion is not one to back down and based on his most recent reactions to Harper, I don't imagine he'll start now. Truth be known, Dion is looking like a leader because he's driving the agenda and that, as I've said before, is a major reason why Harper must pull the plug now.

It's also been said that Harper will go after the Green Shift by painting it as complicated and devastating to the economy. Both charges are patently false of course. In fact, Senator Grant Mitchell lays out that falsehood quite effectively, here.

It's going to get interesting, so don't forget to donate what you can, here.

Stick around Mr. Flanagan. You play to the Liberal advantage and we like you for that.

Well Done Mr. Dion

Stephan Dion seems to be doing things differently these days. When Harper speaks to the press and famously distorts the truth, Dion doesn't waste any time reacting to it. While I wish he had adopted this strategy a little sooner, I'm glad to see it now.

What I'm referring to specifically is that this morning, while answering questions from the press gallery Harper inferred that Dion is avoiding setting up a meeting for the 2 to discuss the fall session. In fact, he said that his office has spent several weeks trying to nail down a time and that they can't seem to come to any agreement. Subsequent questions had him reinforcing the fact that this has been dragging on for a long time and that he's spent weeks playing 'telephone tag'. And then he went a step further:

But he complained that two opposition leaders -- Dion and the Bloc Quebecois' Gilles Duceppe -- won't meet with him before Sept. 9.

When Harper was asked why there was so much urgency to go to an election and how exactly is the parliament dysfunctional, he had this to say.

"I think it's clear they want to bring down the government and not say when," Harper said of the opposition parties, adding, "We'll have to ask whether it's appropriate to have people vote twice in the space of a few weeks."

Does this man have any idea of how our parliamentary system works? And btw, why doesn't anyone in the media bring that point up? Since when does the Leader of the Opposition have to tell the PM precisely when he intends to bring the government down?

Dion quickly called a scrum and quickly put the lie's to rest. They haven't been trying to reach him for weeks, in fact, the first time his office was contacted was 8 days ago at which point Dion's people said he was free to meet on....wait for it, August 26th. Yep, Dion was prepared to meet today, but that didn't work out for the PM so the offices are still negotiating.

It really is something how easily this PM lies isn't it?

The scrum went on with questions directed to Dion about why Harper is pushing for an election. By his response, which you can listen to here, it's pretty clear that Dion has the PM's number and isn't falling for his feints.

I think I gained a little clarity on Harper's strategy while listening to him earlier. It struck me that this really is about doing things on his timetable, specifically, his desire to reclaim the agenda.

He's obviously aware that Dion is in the driver's seat on that count at the moment and he wants that seat back. Going back for a Fall session will only allow Harper to pursue his current sagging agenda and Dion will still have the upper hand. By calling an election, Harper gets to push the re-set button and come forward with a new agenda in the shape of a platform.

I think the other factors I've cited these past few days all lead to that conlusion and still have their own weight, but in the end, it's about Harper's need to be in control.

Update - Harper has grounded the GG from travelling to Beijing. Start your engines.