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What goes on in Stephen Harper's mind? At the moment it seems to be any one's guess, but the strategy of calling an election now is one that deserves some attention. Like any strategy, there are pro's and con's to be weighed and if indeed he goes forward, I think it's safe to say that they believe they are on the winning side of this gambit.
On the pro side, I see the following:
- Avoiding further scrutiny into the In and Out scheme, including action being proposed to force MP's and others to appear before committee.
- Pre-empting any findings arising from the lawsuit they filed against Elections Canada. It's my understanding that the Con's have until August 29th to file their final submissions and then Mayrand has until October 10th, to respond. The Con's at that point have an option to appeal within 10 days. Who knows what they'll decide? All I can say is based on what has been in the public domain thus far, the Conservatives chances of winning this thing are not looking good.
- Another issue to pre-empt would be the decision by the Commissioner of Elections Canada to go forward with the process of laying charges against the party, based on the information they obtained from the raid.
- They avoid having to answer questions in the House about those issues and others.
- The economy is not looking good, so they can avoid the next update which they must have a feel for.
- There are more issues of avoidance and feel free to add to the list, but something stands out for me. Harper said he felt that the next government would be a minority, and while I'm sure he wants a majority, he seems to have made peace with that fact. Why?
Well, he's signalling to his base that another minority is possible, so get comfortable with that and he knows that if he wins a minority, all parties will have spent their coffers dry and no one, specifically the Official Opposition, will be able to take the government down in the near future. So, he'll continue with business as usual.
- Contrary to all appearances, they must obviously have a platform ready and one that they think will sell. Based on their 10%'er's, it looks lame to me, but we'll see.
So, what are the Con's that they took into consideration?
- Obviously their first consideration would be their chances in the election. They must feel that they are solidly in play and they must also feel that their current attack strategy is working. I think they have put all of their eggs in the basket labelled 'Leader' and they believe that they have the advantage.
- Attacks that they are breaking the Fixed Election Date law.
They are already countering that with spin. It apparently was only supposed to be used if they had a majority.
Right. I guess that is why he assigned a date to it as a minority government.
- Criticism over the waste of calling by-elections. I haven't yet heard the spin to counter this claim, but I'm sure it's being developed as I type.
- They obviously know that they will be accused of all the avoidance issues I've already raised, but as is their wont, they turn reality on it's head and accuse the opposition parties of what they themselves perpetrate.
Again, I'm sure there are many more, but they obviously feel that they have them covered.
So, what conclusions can we draw from this exercise?
I think the Con's are betting the farm that they have the upper hand and the winning strategy. I don't for a minute think they haven't considered all the negatives associated with this move, but believe they can be overcome.
What intrigues me is that they are betting on the fact that most Canadians tune out politics during the summer, so they likely believe they can sweep summer happenings under the rug.
I believe their biggest weakness is how they underestimate Canadians. Yes we are passive and often unengaged but if issues are put in front of us, we react. They also underestimate the opposition's voice. They claim to have more money to spread the word, but in an election, the playing field is leveled and unless they overspend again, that's not the case.
They also underestimate Dion. Does he have the charisma of Obama? No of course not. Name me a leader who does. Does Harper possess that? No. In fact I'd argue that Harper is anti-charismatic. He is betting that he can paint Dion weak, but now that I have seen Dion in action, that is a mistake. There is nothing weak about Dion. He would not be in this fight obviously, if he was weak. If Conservatives equate heft with strength, they'd do well to consider intellect and intent, and then apply that term.
Where will all of this take us? Back to where we were months ago, so what a waste of time and money. It's also an admission that the country is not Harper's first priority. Harper's first priority is Harper. Yes, he wants to shape the country into his myopic mould, but I suspect the man has grown accustomed to the position. As you look around the world and consider which leaders believe they should be in power, Harper fits right in there.
Pro vs Con. Progress versus regress. We are living in interesting times.
BTW, Dion is ready to
fight.