Strategy, Tactics and Timing

So the game and speculation continues. Harper meets with Gilles Duceppe to basically say nothing. His game? Present the facade that he's making an effort to work with the opposition leaders. He's not though, or not at least according to Duceppe.

Tomorrow, he'll play the same game with Layton and he won't even bother to meet with Dion.

Here's the thing though. If you're going to have your officials go to the press even before your pretend meeting with Layton and they speculate that the election will be on the 14th of October, what the heck is the point of trying to present an alternate reality? He really does think Canadians are stupid doesn't he?

Officials in the Prime Minister's office say that Stephen Harper will likely call an election next week and send voters to the polls on Oct. 14.

These officials told The Canadian Press no decision has yet been made, but they indicated he will go to the Governor-General sometime between Sept. 2 and 7th.

Bloc Quebecois Leader Gilles Duceppe met with Harper Friday morning and said Harper "absolutely wants to call an election."

As an aside, Aaron Wherry at MacLeans seems to be hearing that October 14th would not be ideal. That does seem like odd timing and certainly not a group that Harper would want to tick off.

There's another timing issue though that seems to be working against Harper and co. It's that old nuisance of, events conspiring against you.

Sadly, the Listeria outbreak is not calming and indeed, there has been another related death. It's awful when such things play into the political narrative, but it's a fact that they do.

Since the Liberals jumped on the leaked memo from the CFIA in July, they should be expected to continue to hit the government on this point. What is gaining steam though is 3rd party support and more information. I'm sure Harper didn't plan on going into an election with all of that building in the news.

Nor am I sure that he expected the backlash in Quebec to his Arts cuts. The rest of us did of course, but it's a sign to me that he and his 'people' are really out of touch of where Canadians are. I mean really, if Chantal Hebert is taking this tone, what more do you need to know?

It's difficult to keep up with the number of groups he's angered and if the Con's do not think that any of that will play out during an election, they are dreaming.

Is it possible that he allowed himself to believe that the country was shifting to the right since he took office? Listening to a bit of conservative talk radio this afternoon, his followers certainly are taking that line. In fact, one host went as far as to say that McCain's choice of running mate ensures a Conservative sweep across the US and Canada this Fall.

What utter nonsense. No one knows yet how our election will turn out, but what we progressives have on our side is the mountain of evidence that Conservative ideology is, (when it is accurately laid out), not being embraced in large numbers. When the results of said ideology come home to roost, they are certainly more likely to be rejected than embraced and it looks like that just might be happening at the moment.

In addition to what I've already mentioned, the Con's also have the small problem of the economy to contend with.

And finally, it appears that Harper is going to try to paint Dion with political spectrum brush, I suppose in retaliation for Dion pointing out just how right on the spectrum Harper really is.

This in my opinion, (if Harper keeps it up), will be damaging to him. He's spent an awful lot of capital, (both political and real), in trying to present a moderate stance. As soon as he starts using the rhetoric we see and hear south of the border by the Republicans, Canadians shy away. Most Canadians see themselves as progressive and to suggest that that is a bad thing, as the Con's are beginning to do, will reap them few rewards. In fact, it may have NDP, Green and young supporters looking to and seeing the merits of Dion.

Perhaps he's trying to pull the far right back into the fold if they thought Harper had been too centrist, but they were never going to vote Liberal anyway. What's the point? Is that all he feels he can draw on and does he have internal numbers that tell him that will push him through?

I have the sense that the master tactician and supposed superior strategist's veneer is starting to peel away.

I say, keep it up.

Update - A factual analysis that I think supports my supposition.