Monday, May 25, 2009

Bye, Bye, Mon CowBoy

I know it's only one poll, but really, things aren't looking too good here for Mr. Sure of Himself.

For those of you who don't understand the reference, it's an old Mitsou song.

What? I could have used the line: Bye, Bye Mon Gigolo, ;).


- Chantal Hébert weighs in.

... the speechwriters who had the Prime Minister proclaim – as he did Wednesday – that he has not written off Quebec missed the point for it is Quebecers who are about to write off the Conservatives in the next ballot.

- And there is more here from Hubert Bauch:

In Québécois preference for prime minister, Stephen Harper ranks behind Jack Layton, never mind runaway favourite Michael Ignatieff.

"It seems from these numbers that the Tory bridge to Quebec is burned to a crisp," said Peter Donolo, whose Strategic Council firm ran the mid- May poll. Others say it suggests that Harper is by now irrevocably branded in Québécois perception as a mean-spirited political thug

Also see, BC'er, Impolitic, Diatribes and Far and Wide.


William said...

It's not just one poll. CROP in April had the same numbers (actually lower for Cons), as had Nanos, Ekos, ect...this is a trend, strong trend, that has been going on for almost 6 months now.

KNB said...

I know William and I agree.

I was just pre-empting the inevitable Conservative reaction.

Ted said...

The big difference between this poll and the many earlier polls showing the Liberal surge is that this poll was taken after the start of the attack ad blitz, between May 14 and 17.

So, while prior polls were good, one had no sense of how solid, deep and strong the good polling was. Were the good numbers just parked votes as Ignatieff had not been defined yet?

This poll is the first good indication that votes are moving in a real and tangible and solid way.

Anonymous said...

After Harper basically told people in Quebec to F.O., what did you expect?

wilson said...

KNB, the poll shows the CPC haven't moved, in Quebec.
Big surprise, no.
The poll was also taken before the 2300 CPC supporters gathered in Quebec.

And the truth ads were not formulated to increase voting intentions, they are framing ads.
So if the Cons numbers don't move in the ROC, no big surprise either.

The numbers to watch for are the leaders numbers.

Steve V said...

"The poll was also taken before the 2300 CPC supporters gathered in Quebec."

Yes, that gathering with a bunch of ADQ supporters, who are at 8% in this poll btw.

It's laughable, if anyone thinks that fundraiser will mean SQUAT to Conservative fortunes in Quebec. Okay, to be fair, maybe it will help them get into a tie for THIRD with the NDP. Done, done, done. I hope you enjoyed your scorched earth attacks during the prorogue period, because history will write it as the final nail in your Quebec coffin.

Steve V said...

"And the truth ads were not formulated to increase voting intentions, they are framing ads."

And, one more hysterical point. Go back and tour the Blogging Tories (if you can stomach it) and you'll find wilson here telling everyone that attack ads at this time would be a bad idea, the Cons should run ads on their incredible record of achievement. They should have listened to you, because they're going over like a lead balloon.

Now it's all about the leadership numbers, LMAO.

RuralSandi said...

Job performance? What job performance. They keep saying "we're gettin the job done". Why only "one" job and which is it?

Seems to me that they have failed on the important files - disaster: Chalk River, Listeria, foreing policy, helping workers...which "singular JOB" did they get done?

Whatever happened to their promise of improvement in wait times? Money to municipalities? Did Tom Lukiwski fulfill his promise to reach out to the gay and lesbian community during his apology, etc., etc.?

So tell me folks - what one job did they get done?

KNB said...

Agreed Ted. I would like to see the internals though.

KNB said...

cwtf, you mean after he started saying that out loud, ;).

KNB said...

Wilson, I do not know what you are smoking, but you really should share.

KNB said...

"we're gettin the job done"To use an old expression Sandi, gag! If I hear that one more time...

The expression itself is bad enough but it's hollowness is worse.

ottlib said...

"So if the Cons numbers don't move in the ROC, no big surprise either."

Lowering expectations are we?