Friday, July 11, 2008

Keeping Promises and a New Poll

Dion has added two more female candidates to an already impressive list.

MONTREAL, July 11 /CNW Telbec/ - The Hon. Céline Hervieux-Payette,Senator and Lieutenant and Chief Organizer for Quebec for the Leader of theOpposition is very proud to announce that Madame Diane Dicaire andMs. Brigitte Legault will be candidates in the ridings of Hochelaga andVaudreuil-Soulanges during the next federal election. "I am especially proud that these women, from diverse backgroundsdemonstrate such an acute interest to promote the Liberal values and torepresent their fellow citizens , said the Hon. Céline Hervieux-Payette. Thisconfirms the vitality and the attraction of our Party for Quebecers due to, inlarge part, to the innovative proposals made by our Leader, Stéphane Dion fora greener, richer and more just Canada and Quebec."

If you recall, he committed to having at least 33% of candidates being women. With the addition of these two women, we're now at 38%. Pretty impressive and let's hope this continues. Funny, the NDP quote the 33% in a disparaging way, insinuating that Dion is aiming too low, because you know, the NDP are so much more enlightened. Well, they are at 40%. I guess they just lost another bashing point.

The Conservatives are at a whopping 17%, btw. I wonder if they are putting any effort behind this issue? On the surface it seems unlikely, but given how low their support is among women you'd think they'd be making it a priority. On the other hand, perhaps they've written that segment off.

On another note, yet another Ipsos Reid poll is out. Big surprise, the Lib's and Con's are tied. Lib's 32% and Con's at 33%. Hmm, wasn't there about a 5 point spread in the last poll? I'll have to go back and check. I didn't really expect anything other than a tie, but surely by now the Con's must be worried.

I heard the poll announced on radio and Darrell Bricker spoke to it. If anyone wonders if there is leaning to the right by the people who run this firm, rest assured there is. I'm not saying their polls are bias, but their spokesmen make their position clear. In speaking to the general results, Bricker said something like, 'It show's how far the Conservatives have to go to gain a majority and it also shows how strong the Liberals are in spite of Dion'.

In spite of Dion? I know that most media has been pretty tough on Dion, but the Conservatives have a way of assuming that their position is the accepted wisdom and when they make comments like that one, they show their cards.

I haven't seen the internals yet, but the radio host did read out some interesting numbers, only a few of which I caught. In Ontario apparently the Lib's are still way up at 42% and the Con's are at 30%. They asked about the Harper "screw everyone" comment and 55% disagreed with that, I think 32% agreed, (but don't quote me), but if that's the case, gee what a coincidence re' the general support number and what miscalculation by the master strategist, Harper.

Of those who answered the Ipsos Reid survey of 1,002 adult Canadians, a slim majority, 52 per cent, said they either strongly or somewhat agree with Dion's approach. In contrast, 42 per cent of respondents said they strongly or somewhat oppose the plan, and six per cent were undecided.

Since when did 10 points became a slim majority? I know. He'd argue he meant only 2% over 50, but really, the language is so obvious. Messaging is what these guys are all about.

While 62 per cent of respondents said they believed the plan - dubbed Green Shift by the Liberals - will reduce pollution in the country, about two-thirds (65 per cent) of respondents felt the Liberals' proposed carbon tax would lead to a major increase in the taxes paid by families, and 62 per cent said they thought it's likely to increase tension between Western Canada, Ontario and Quebec.

These results are interesting. The Conservatives and the NDP are pushing the point that the Green Shift is shy on details in terms of how it will reduce pollution, yet Canadians buy that part. The other results cited confirm that some of the Con messaging is getting through and not enough emphasis has been placed on tax cuts and credits by the Lib's. That should be a take away from this poll and the response should resemble this perhaps. Furthermore, the recent press by Stelmach and Wall certainly played into the division concept.

Bricker makes another odd comment in this article:

Darrell Bricker, president and CEO of Ipsos Reid, said it's clear Canadians feel the Green Shift is "not nearly as good as Stephane Dion would claim, or nearly as bad as Stephen Harper would claim."

That Dion has only begun his tour and not everyone has actually heard him explain it but 52% already support it, I'd say Bricker's way off in the first part of his comment.

RT made a really good point on Steve's blog the other day in suggesting that the Town Halls Dion is conducting should be put on You Tube. There is risk involved I guess, but I think it would be a brilliant move.

I wrote to the party to suggest what RT said. Maybe you will too?


The Mound of Sound said...

Now if only we could bring Ms. Arbour into the lineup.

ottlib said...

We cannot do that MoS, she is a disgrace don't you know.

An Ipsos-Reid poll saying the Liberals and Conservatives are tied. Hmmmm, that is interesting.

Also a majority agree with Mr. Dion's approach. Combine that with the poll last week indicating that one-third of respondents knew what the Green Shift Plan was, without prompting, three weeks after its release and I would say the Liberals selling job is progressing nicely.

Steve V said...

"With the addition of these two women, we're now at 38%."

I didn't know we were that high. Wow.

On that RT idea, I have heard the event yesterday was fully videotaped, and I spoke with the campaign to suggest they YouTube it. We'll see.

BTW, which station had Bricker on? And, I noticed in my link, the horserace numbers were glanced over, as though irrelevant. Why does this always seem to happen when the Libs move?

knb said...

MoS- Wouldn't that be brilliant? Given here accomplishments, it's difficult for me to think she'd want to run, but on the other hand, it may be a fitting place to land.

Oh, the outrage we'd hear from the right though!

knb said...

Indeed ottlib. Toew's would be out in full force, but at least we'd have her rational voice responding.

Re' the Green Shift, I think it would be tough to have wished for greater results.

knb said...

Steve, I hope they heard you.

Bricker made the comment on CFRB. I sometimes listen to John Moore, who is a Liberal, though way right of me.

Bricker only made the news broadcast, but who is the other guy, John Wright? He's often on there. Big time partisan.

Anyway, Moore had the internals and whipped through them so I missed a lot, but they sounded promising.

Why does this always seem to happen when the Libs move?

It's (cough) an accident.

Frankly Canadian said...

I'm glad we have honest people like yourself to disclaim the constant disreputable reporting and polling that goes on with these media companies. Keep up the good work, I just wish more Canadians could see theses blogs and learn the truth about our so called news reporters and unbiased polling.

knb said...

Thanks Frankly Canadian an welcome to the world of blogging.

I expect you'll be setting the record straight as well.

Anonymous said...

I hope that we see Bob Rae and Michael Ignatieff going out this summer and selling the Green Shift as well. I haven't seen any media reports that they've done so which doesn't mean they haven't. Dion should of course be the lead but he shouldn't be alone on this. That's asking too much of one person.

Anonymous said...

Polls in the middle of the summer are just as interesting as watching
paint dry.

I mean it really shows how desperate some in the liberal blogger's sphere are to try to find anything positive from this poll.

Even if I take this poll at face value,it's nothing for the Liberals to write home about.

I'm only seeing Mr.Dion who really is campaigning here. Not the Conservatives. Sure they do respond here and there,but the Liberal's who are doing the campaign style that you would normally see in an election. The only one who is doing this is Mr.Dion.

You should then ask yourselves why aren't the liberals leading the Conservatives by a wide margin hummm?

I'm just wondering here the next time we see a poll that puts the Conservatives a head by 6,7,8,points if it will be posted. Let me take a wild guess nooot!;)

knb said...

anon, I'm sure all MP's will be out selling it. Whether the media covers it or not is a different matter.

knb said...

Right, you're so wrong on this.

Harper hasn't moved his numbers in over 2 years...Canadians do not trust him and are losing faith on crucial issues like climate change.

The issues he's focussed on, crime, terrorism, they register in the single digit's in Canadians minds.

The Lib's had 1 year of determining a leader and another of putting the party back together.

Are they campaigning now? Yes, but your guy has had a 2 year head start and has nothing to show for it.

As for your final comment, you know full well that I'd speak to any poll that came out, but you are dreaming if you think the next poll is going to show Harper with an 8 point lead.

Anonymous said...

How come the blogging tories and lib logs both claim media bias?

Anonymous said...

knb...since this is an ipsos poll I would not be at all surprised if a new poll next week showed the cons leading by 8 or 10 points....and if the ipsos poll has the liberals almost even with the cons...U can believe they are up to something....we are either way ahead or something big is coming up next week to put the cons way ahead....I don't think it will be the fact that they have removed the inspectors CFIA to test for MADCOW disease to cut government expenses in agriculture.

ottlib said...

Yes, it would not be the first time Ipsos-Reid has shown the two parties neck-and-neck only to come back in a week or two showing the Conservatives jumping out to a big lead.

I fully expect the Conservatives to pull ahead this summer because that is what happens to incumbents when the House is not sitting.

My guess, by the end of the summer the Liberals will still be around 31% plus-or-minus two points and the Conservtives will be around 35%plus-or-minus two.

The really interesting part of this is when the move actually takes place. And if it does not take place then things will really be interesting.

By the end of the Summer the Liberals will be well within striking distance for the election that everybody says will take place this Fall.

Although, it would not surprise me to see Ipsos and Strategic Council come out with polls in late August showing a double digit lead for the Conservatives because that is what they have done every other time the Liberals have either tied or gone ahead of the Conservatives.

Anonymous said...

For the record, we call it as we see it. Why is it that right wing bloggers think I (and my colleagues at Ipsos Reid) are Liberal stooges, and the blogs on the left think we're apologists for Harper and the Tories? If we're upsetting both sides, we must be pretty close to the truth.

On polling, here's all you need to know:

- The #s haven't moved much since Jan '06;
- People respect Harper, think he's doing a good job, but don't like him;
- At best, they're confused by Dion.
- The Tories can't get traction in either Quebec or Ontario. And, the votes they have across the country are inefficient in terms of seats;
- The Grits are close behind, but have a much more efficient vote;
- Dion is well behind in Quebec, where he was supposed to make a difference.

On the Green Shift, Dion's timing couldn't have been worse. The environment is dropping as a priority, and a new tax (which is how it looks to the public) is a "bad" idea in a tough economy.

If an election is held in the fall, Harper has the advantage. But, unless there is a complete collapse of the Grit vote (say below 28%), a majority is almost impossible.

There it is. That's all you need to know.

Darrell Bricker

knb said...

Thank you for your contribution Darrell, but that is not all I need to know.

I'm happy to hear from you, usually it's John and I'm sorry, when he host's a show on CFRB it's kind of tough not to pick up the bias.

In fairness, Ann Kathawala brings balance, but Warren?, Rudyard?, they are hardly contemporary examples of the parties they are meant to represent. Powers is though. Go figure.

That said, I want to respect what you have imparted.

I thought Dion was doing better in Quebec, close to the Bloc and the Conservatives were trailing. Is that not the case?

Dion's timing on the Green Shift? I disagree. What is dishonest about polls on this subject and the reporting is that no one says that the Conservative plan will also raise all of those costs, but provide no relief.

Those are not my words. That is what their plan says. No one put's that to the people though. Why isn't that ever mentioned in a poll? It's dishonest imo. To me, you are polling using only one side of the argument and it happens to be aligned with a Conservative talking point.

To your last point, yes, I think we are all aware that a Conservative majority is impossible.

Finally, for the record, the excuse that both sides are angry at us must mean we're doing our job is a flimsy cane to rely on while walking.

Only lazy media wear that as a badge. We expect more from both of you.

Steve V said...
This comment has been removed by the author.
Steve V said...

"Why is it that right wing bloggers think I (and my colleagues at Ipsos Reid) are Liberal stooges, and the blogs on the left think we're apologists for Harper and the Tories? If we're upsetting both sides, we must be pretty close to the truth."

Darrell, you seem far more reasonable than you colleague, who just generally threatens any questioning like a rabid dog, baiting and posturing.

I'm quite comfortable in the assumption that your outfit tends to overstate the Conservatives support relative to others, others that frankly have a better track record. From what I see in the discourse online, Conservative supports constantly cite your findings, I've never once heard any Tory accuse you of being a "Liberal stooge". That angle is just non-existent frankly, aside from some stray post I'm sure you could find to cobble together a quantatively weak argument. Sorry, but I see no evidence to support the, "we're getting it from both sides, must be doing something right" comfort blanket of objectivity. The fact of the matter, Don Martin, who works for your client, stated on CBC two months ago that Ipsos tends to show the Conservatives consistently higher than other outfits, didn't seem like he was sold either. There is no controversy here, the Conservatives like your findings, the Liberals hate them. To be truthfully, I generally shave off a couple points mentally everytime I read a poll, it's my opinion that your methodology produces slightly off results. That's my perspective, I read every poll in detail (the fact you don't post your pdf's like other pollsters is another weakness), I just don't take the numbers as absolute.

Two cents, prove me wrong.